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Morning Commentary

Internal Pains as Market Seeks a Spark

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/18/2014 6:30 AM

The market closed at another all-time high, although the last four trading sessions were touch and go. Yesterday, only 1,404 stocks, or 43%, of the NYSE advanced while 1,756 declined. The NASDAQ saw only 911 advancing stocks, or 33%, versus 1,774 decliners. For some, this is alarming as it points to frustration seeking value, but the better way to look at this is that would-be sellers have had four sessions in a row to dump winners, but they are holding.

Of course, there was calm just like this in the weeks leading to the October scare, too. It remains to be seen if the market can get traction and what exactly investors are looking for, but make no mistake, there is a desire for a spark.

The market-higher/internals sloppy situation was especially pronounced last week.

In fact, on Thursday, there were far more losers on the NYSE than winners and new highs slipped from 221 stocks on Monday on the NYSE to just 134 as new lows swelled to 51 from 28.

NYSE Composite Daily Breadth


Daily

Nov.10

Nov.11

Nov.12

Nov.13

Nov.14

Advances

1,794

1,602

1,711

1,124

1,650

Declines

1,364

1,534

1,452

2,022

1,498

New Highs

221

210

138

198

134

New Lows

28

38

40

71

51

The same trends played out on NASDAQ where decliners actually beat advancers on Thursday and Friday and new highs tumbled from 150 to 72 as stocks at new 52-week lows edged from 44 to 58.

Yet there was amazing action on NASDAQ Monday with Apple making yet another high and powerhouse Zillow (Z) exploding higher.

NASDAQ Composite Daily Breadth


Daily

Nov.10

Nov.11

Nov.12

Nov.13

Nov.14

Advances

1,677

1,264

1,659

901

1,310

Declines

1,051

1,421

1,043

1,807

1,394

Unchanged

84

129

103

91

130

New Highs

150

122

133

153

72

New Lows

44

52

54

67

58

For me, it means investors are plowing into names they know:

A) Either these names are up big

B) Or they have potential to "pop" fast

What Matters?

Last Thursday on my show "Making Money with Charles Payne" on Fox Business at 6PM, we had an interesting conversation on and off the air about helping the audience. The stock market is at all-time highs which would imply nothing matters. Just consider, the Dow hit 64 during the Great Depression and now it is approaching 18,000. That suggests anyone that put in a month's worth of income back in the 1930s would be among the richest investors in the world.

This would have happened through world wars, famine, disaster, recessions, Democrats in the White House, Republicans in the White House, Fed money printing, and Disco.

That's a fact, but there is another fact and it is that most people are worried about their lives day to day including their hard earned money. I get that, and I've dealt with it for 29 years. Most of the ideas on my services are designed to be held long term, but when they pop 30% in a couple of weeks, I ask my subscribers to take some off the table.

In my heart, 90% of the time, I know that's a mistake... If only they were willing to ride the waves, but even those that say ‘yes’ really aren't going to hold great companies during the next big down turn.

On that note, investor confidence has soared according to the American Association of Individual Investors to a point on the cusp of exuberance.

I can tell you there isn't that kind of excitement in the air, but there is a story here. Back in March of 2009, the AAII bullish reading was 18.9, a record low point, when the market was a screaming buy.  So it is easy to say that now that the reading is in the 95th quintile, it must be a screaming sell signal. The problem is there has never been a screaming sell signal.

I jest, but this market is too inexpensive and there is no exuberance in the air associated with massive corrections and market crashes.

Today’s Session

Earnings announcements out after the bell and this morning all beat consensus estimates with the exception of Urban Outfitters, that was an unmitigated disaster (my son stopped asking me to take him there years ago). The most compelling report came from Home Depot which posted an impressive beat- top and bottom.

But the stock is indicating lower on that data hack that saw info on 35 million customers stolen.  Management isn’t sure what the ultimate cost will be.

Earnings Results

ompany

Ticker

EPS

(Actual)

EPS

(Est)

Rev

(Actual $M)

Rev

(Est $M)

Agilent

A

0.88

0.50

$1,805.00

$1,059.02

Urban Outfitters

URBN

0.35

0.41

$814.50

$813.30

Dicks Sporting Goods

DKS

0.41

0.40

$1,526.70

$1,531.99

Home Depot

HD

1.15

1.14

$20,516.00

$20,468.10

Medtronic

MDT

0.96

0.95

$4,366.00

$4,372.59

JA Solar

JASO

0.21

0.15

$492.20

$425.25

 
The other big news item is producer price index which came in above consensus for the headline number and core (minus food and energy). It’s the latter that’s alarming at +0.4%, although it’s more of a yellow flag than red flag as it is premature to think this will spill over into consumer prices, but the news stalled a small pre-open rally attempt.

 


Comments
Oil prices going down have bit me in the butt....but I'm hanging in there.

Russ Snyder on 11/18/2014 10:56:38 AM
I do it less than 25% and 99% of the time it turns higher the next day and never comes back to what I sold it for.

Dell on 11/18/2014 11:19:18 AM
I would love to see tax code changes which would benefit investment in companies which make money. But, that does not appear to be on the horizon, and in our society with "get rich quick" mentality, the stock market is base more on human emotions than on good business practice. At least that is the way it works for results under a tear or so.

And the sword cuts both ways. A lot of money can be made on horribly run companies which are trading their future for this quarter's report. A lot of money can be lost on very well run companies which refuse to placate the fools on Wall Street by deviating from a plan which works just because sales are off temporarily due to the economy. If I want to fire and forget on my investments and only update annually or semiannually, then I will base only on the competency of the long term plan and leaders. But, since I update weekly, it is good to go ahead and stick with stocks like TXN, where management has been systematically trading off the future for a nice rise in current stock prices. And I will hold back on IRBT where the future looks very rosy, but the present is quite rocky.

Bob G on 11/18/2014 11:32:13 AM
Watched Charles for years and on Fox business and am keen on his recommendations.His picks are right on and my small portfolio usually benefits.

mike michel on 11/18/2014 10:19:18 PM
 

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