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Question of the Week

What do you think should be done, or needs to happen, in order for consumers, especially lower-income consumers, to feel more confident about purchasing a home?
Post your answer below.

Morning Commentary

Ferguson & Income Inequality

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/25/2014 9:42 AM

The grand jury decision announced in Ferguson resulted in a night of protest and looting that has the nation on edge this morning. While the initial media focus will be on racial aspects of the decision and reactions, there’s an underlying issue that will expand into a national narrative that’s already got a full wind in its sails. The spread of wealth or income inequality dominates the political scene around the world (see Hong Kong or ask Mitt Romney) and Ferguson will be a major part the conversion during the  2016 election.

Beyond the politics, however, is real life. In the greatest country in the world, there are opportunities to change the arc of one’s life. The problem is it doesn’t happen overnight. People have consumed too many Hallmark movies or think getting rich quick with or without talent is a birthright. In some cases, the game plan has to be to live a life that makes our children’s lives better. Sacrifices in a time of largess where everyone aspires to wear the latest fashion, even if it’s out of their income reach, is a key component of America that’s fading (more so than religion, marriage and forming families).

On that note, there are several trends dating back to 1984 that underscore why the rich stay rich and the poor must make sacrifices to get out of their condition.

Since 1984, income for the bottom 20% of earners has actually grown the fastest versus other quintiles and layer in all the assortments of goodies like earned income tax credits, federal and state benefits and the “poor” aren’t the same as they were in the past.

Yet homeownership has actually declined in this income bracket.

The family home has been a source of economic freedom for generations. It’s how parents got their children into college, and later, it helped them start a business. Instead, the poor are renting more, getting sucked into a trap of plowing more hard earned cash into shelter without any gains of equity.

How the Poor Stay Poor

Income & Rent

1984 to 2012

Income

+215%

Rent

+295%

 Then there’s the ultimate investment- education. Gone are the days of heading to the big city for a factory job that pays big money. There are still great blue collar jobs, but even those require special skillsets. But the longer term is all about knowledge- the kind gained in college. The kind gained in good schools before going to college. Since 1984, the highest quintile has seen its spending (investment) in education surge by 526%. Nepotism, cronyism and Fed policy are great if you’re rich, but to keep the family fortune in the family, it has to be handed over to prepared heirs.

How the Poor Stay Poor

Spending on Education

1984 to 2012

 

Bottom Quintile

$628

+86%

 

Highest Quintile

$3,399

+526%

Sadly, the folks that are going to stoke the flames of anger and beat the drums of income inequality are the same folks that have given us horrendous public school systems, and run cities and states where despair has actually gotten worse, not better.

After the looting is over and the ashes of former buildings are swept away, Ferguson will stand as a microcosm of an America that’s becoming more of a reality for too many. The thing is all the things that made the nation great are there to allow any person to change their own fortunes or that of their children. If you’re poor and tired of this stuff, don’t buy yourself a LV bag or your children Nike sneakers… put that money in the bank, and later even the market, and read to your children every night.

There are paths out of poverty, and hopelessness isn’t the only choice for many Americans, even if it’s advertised as the only choice.

Today’s Session

The markets are getting a nice boost this morning following an incredibly positive GDP revision for the third quarter – which was unexpectedly revised up instead of down. The economy grew 3.9% in the third quarter versus the advance estimate of 3.5%. Growth still decelerated from the second quarter weather rebound of 4.6% annualized – now the growth seems far more realistic.

Additionally, the luxury space is likely to make a comeback during the holiday season according to comments in Tiffany & Co.’s (TIF) earnings report. In addition, there were a few other positive earnings to boot from yesterday’s close as well as the premarket.

Company

EPS

Consensus

Revenue ($M)

FY EPS Guidance

FY EPS Consensus

PANW

0.15

B 0.03

192.30

(Q2) 0.16 -0.17

0.16

QIHU

0.63

B 0.02

376.40

-

2.49

WDAY

-0.03

B 0.06

215.07

-

-0.42

CPB

0.74

B 0.02

2,255.00

(FY15) 2.42 -2.50

2.47

DANG*

0.05

M 0.01

326.30

-

0.21

DSW

0.56

B 0.04

670.00

(FY15) 1.55 - 1.65

1.59

TIF*

0.76

M 0.01

959.60

(FY15) 4.20 - 4.30

4.34

YGE

-0.10

M 0.03

551.50

-

-0.76

* = Open WSS Idea


Comments
For consumers needing to buy a home the FHA fees are crazy. Especially for consumers with good credit. The PMI insurance is ridiculous.


debra on 11/25/2014 10:26:46 AM
Folks need jobs, wage increases that keep up with inflation, a sense of job security, good credit, and enough money to be able to meet the down payment requirement before they'll buy homes.

GeorgeE on 11/25/2014 10:57:43 AM
How interesting that this question be asked on Mr. Payne's site...Thanks you are the great example of EXACTLY what young blacks should aspire to be. It is my guess that you were not a basketball or football junkie. You had clear thoughts as to what drugs and thugs would do for your future. I started life as a typewriter mechanic and worked my way to a comfortable retirement by investing in real estate.
Keep up the good work and thanks for being a great role model. I am white.
Buddy King Prairieville

Buddy King on 11/25/2014 11:36:57 AM
change the financing method so that as the low income people better themselves they have an incentive to move to a different home...

JJ Murata on 11/25/2014 12:00:19 PM
We need to create more good paying jobs. We need tax reform and less regulations from the Fed's!!!!!

Rick Fortner on 11/25/2014 12:33:32 PM
Here comes 2008 again. Only this time
we do not have sufficient reserves. This
time a housing bubble could break us
totally.

tom wayne on 11/25/2014 12:43:29 PM
quit voting for liberals. They don't have anyones best interests at heart.
They will pander, misrepresent, lie just to get votes to perpetuate the liberal political party. A treacherous scheme that has been and is continuing to be used. And yet the gullible, and naïve still fall for it.

rusty on 11/25/2014 1:59:04 PM
Low income cannot overcome property valuations and interest costs. Condos are one way spread the cost but that requires people to accept what they can afford. The single family home is simply out of their reach.

Mark Swenson on 11/25/2014 2:28:29 PM
Low income cannot overcome property valuations and interest costs. Condos are one way spread the cost but that requires people to accept what they can afford. The single family home is simply out of their reach.

Mark Swenson on 11/25/2014 2:28:32 PM
They need affordable homes and low down payment mortgages with fewer restrictions as to job length, etc.

Barry on 11/25/2014 3:20:25 PM
Make the home prices sensible.

Patricia Flynn on 11/25/2014 3:45:25 PM
Quit building so many McMansions. Up 196% on $500k is a lot more money than on 256% on $50K. The builders are going where the money is. Leaves the lower income affordable housing out in the cold. Need Govt help to push for a company that will produce more of these new factory Pre-fab houses, and a program to finance part of the down payment so there is less risk to selling these houses.


Ken Gervais on 11/25/2014 9:20:56 PM
Make a one-year course in economics mandatory in high school. Job security is essential. People need to be willing to make sacrifices to stay in their home. No one can have everything.


Margaret Buckle on 11/25/2014 10:18:15 PM
Take the power and the money out of Washington. Give the power and the money to the states. Washington is eating our money they ruin everything they touch. Employ Americans not immigrants. Americans are industrious and will pre vale if Washington does what it was created to do protect us and our borders.

Charlene Voss on 11/25/2014 10:24:32 PM
Low income Americans think they deserve the high paying jobs because they are Americans. Other Americans do not want to work lower paying jobs because they feel it is beneath them. The problem is the government made welfare and unemployment a job opportunity. Why do low income people buy luxury items? Because there is no regulation in the welfare system. Child support/alimony payments are not monitored and those people only look out for themselves. It disgusts me to know that my tax dollars went to buying you a $2000 handbag, but your kids are on government cheese in Section 8 housing. I deserve my higher income because I served my country and applied myself. Besides draining society and perpetuating stereotypes what have you done?

Tigh Savage on 11/26/2014 8:27:37 AM
The lenders created the housing crisis and now they are prohibiting meaningful recovery.
During the housing bubble, lenders were approving uncredit worthy buyers.
Now, all they have done is taken advantage of the Federal Government's actions of lowering rates and HARP/HAMP programs - and have taken no initiative to add to the government efforts/programs.
They take the posture that they did not know they were approving un credit worthy borrowers - and now, they need to show supreme caution.
They knew full well, they were approving junk, and now they are declining themselves into their eventual unemployment. Shemefull!
Kerry Sisson

Kerry Sisson on 11/26/2014 9:14:22 AM
Improve the public school system and encourage family values.

Robb on 11/26/2014 11:41:34 AM
have savings included with income to decide bank loans for homes

Ron Lammers on 11/26/2014 5:18:24 PM
The pendulum has swung from too easy to qualify to to tough to qualify. No talk about 90% loans. That would help many buyers and a more normal lending environment. With rents being what they are it is cheaper to own.

mike thomas on 11/27/2014 8:27:02 AM
Loans must become more available and buyers need to become accustomed to having more skin in the game. Also, a perceived stability in the jobs market will incentivize more people to take the leap.

Ron Davis on 11/27/2014 1:56:44 PM
1.very basic principals of home ownership should be taught in high school.
2.a higher yield bond account federally insured should be available to younger investor for the purpose of accumulating a traditional down payment

Robert Levenson on 11/29/2014 7:04:25 AM
 

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