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Morning Commentary

The Real Economic Breakout

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/16/2018 9:21 AM

It’s been a heck of a year for the stock market; however, I think it’s just getting started.  Right now, Dow futures are up 228 points. There’s a good chance that the index will smash through 26,000 while shattering the record for the fastest 1,000-point move in the process.

As we approach earnings season, there is a tremendous excitement about results, and more importantly, guidance.  After a decided move lower, corporate earnings are gaining strength as each quarter gathers additional strength.

It’s not only the new tax rates that have investors optimistic, but it’s also a groundswell of excitement about the economy. In fact, it’s for all the talk about whoever gets credit for the economic revival in this country; according to Quinnipiac Polling, folks are saying the “Nation’s Economy is Excellent.” The economy recently took off like a rocket to 18% this month from just 2% in December 2016.

The best barometer of optimism (and this isn’t just a feeling I have) is the top line of the income statement. After a major lull in year-to-year growth, revenues have begun to take off; I’m looking for this to continue.

According to FactSet Data, the Street already had high expectations for revenue and earnings growth, but I think these numbers are far too low:

For all of 2018, analysts are projecting an earnings growth of 14.7% and a revenue growth of 5.9%.

With this being said, stop fretting about an eventual pullback. Consider the fact that the economy has moved from a survival-and-recovery mode to a growth mode (a condition that feeds itself and doesn’t disappear overnight -neither should this rally).

Today’s Session

The Dow is poised to surge out of the gate as blue chip stocks snare the spotlight from technology on strong earnings news from United Healthcare (UNH) and a Phase III approval for a lung cancer treatment at Merck (MRK). 

I’ve been writing about panic buying, but don’t confuse that with irrational buying.  A green light is going off among professional investors that have been too smart or too cute to catch this wave.  It’s time they do right by the folks they are charging 2 and 20 percent.  On that note, many of this morning’s Wall Street upgrades are to neutral from sell.  In other words,  a reluctance to admit they missed it, but they are trying to erase the embarrassment from the record.

 


Comments
Excellent commentary. So refreshing to hear the truth and to be able to see the truth!

Bill on 1/16/2018 10:02:09 AM
Good Morning, Charles! I saw Varney complaining about the mainstream media not covering the rally and Trump's successes. I say great! All the prosperity and success will be a quiet movement that will resonate strongly by next November the and media still won't understand what happened. I say let the silence continue and the wave of success will continue to rise. Best wishes for another successful year and keep up the great work!

Lane on 1/16/2018 10:34:58 AM
Big boost in Q4 from deferred tax credits for bringing foreign cash home? However real top line growth and lower taxes going forward is not accounting games. Love your balanced analysis, Charles.

Dick Nicholson on 1/16/2018 1:14:10 PM
I enjoy seeing Charles Payne on Fox Business! I also like Stuart Varney, but I thought it interesting that on the morning the DOW broke 26,000, Stuart Varney during his morning show suggested investors sell half their stocks and take some profits. This suggestion was repeated several times. (One guest interviewed seemed to disagree with him.) The market then started a slow selloff lasting the rest of the day. The DOW, which was up 283 points early in the day, ended the day swinging nearly 400 points in the other direction, then finishing the day down 10.33.... I think it is interesting that occasionally I have noticed a comment made on Mr. Varneys morning show shortly before a subsequent rise in the market. At that point Stuart Varney has taken credit for the market rise. Should Mr. Varney now take some more credit, or blame for todays market performance?

Warren C on 1/16/2018 7:00:13 PM
Watch you on Fox and have bought some of your picks with good sucess. Thanks

Gary Fitzpatrick on 1/16/2018 7:59:45 PM
 

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