There is lots of economic data out today, but the biggest development may have come from the Walmart (WMT) call. 

Initial jobless claims at 233,000 came in above consensus as did continuing jobless claims, which claimed 18,000 to 1,865,000.  The highest in nearly two years. 

Continuing Jobless Claims

This helps to explain why the University of Michigan Sentiment spiked in “Bad Time to Buy Stuff’ – especially big-ticket items (houses, large household durables and vehicles), which have been surging. 

This morning the National Association of Home builders Housing Market Index swooned to 34 from 40, which is what the street expected for November as well.

But the most jarring news might have come from the Walmart’s earnings call, which warned and said prices could fall in 2024, as shoppers pivot from mere grumbling about higher costs to changing their behavior - shifting to cheaper goods or snapping wallets shut entirely.

The Chief Financial Officer added, “We are more cautious on the consumer than we were 90 days ago.”

So, was deflation on anyone’s BINGO card?

By the way – a couple things to note on deflation. 

(see arrows and red box)

Then, there is the continued freefall in oil prices. 

The market is grappling with the rapidly changing economic narrative.