Yesterday there were monster moves for monster stocks. They are changing the world and-for now-rewriting the rules of investing. We’ve seen similar moves, but never one like this. When trillion-dollar stocks move 5% in a single session, there is more than mania.

After pulling back to fill a sizable gap, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is poised to retest its highs.

Spending Slowing - Fast

Economic data continues to miss forecasts, including consumer credit, which climbed 5.1% from $12.2 billion.

 

There is now movement for a potential rate cut in January.

It’s the jobs data day…buckle up!

Portfolio Approach

There is no sector weighting change in the Hotline model portfolio.

 

Breaking News

Yields Spike On Strong Payrolls Data

The jobs report is in, and no, it was not “strong.” Yes, yields are higher, but that has as much to do with exaggerated headlines like the one above than any massive shift in economic trends.

The headline number was better than expected. But there were only 150,000 private sector jobs and a big chunk of that were workers returning to work from strikes. Earnings were fractionally higher but not “strong.”

More details on the jobs report in the afternoon note.

For the session, we will be watching 4,600 as the key upside test.

This report doesn’t change the thinking at the Fed.

Participation surged and that’s what Powell wants to see and the street still sees first rate cut in March.

November	Actual	Consensus	October	Revised
Average Hourly Earnings M/M	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	--
Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y	4.0%	4.0%	4.1%	4.0%
Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	34.3	34.3	--
Labor Force Participation Rate	62.8%	62.7%	62.7%	--

 

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