Afternoon Note
It feels like a hundred years ago, but the February jobs report was released on Friday, and it’s still triggering debate. A lot of folks are sharpening their pencils, because there wasn’t a major firm expecting the unemployment rate to zoom up to 3.9%.
There was a decline of 15,400 temp workers, which brings the total to 433,300 laid off temp workers since March 2022.
Laid off temp workers are usually a precursor to laid off full time.
Another bad omen for full-time workers is the spike in unemployment for young workers.
Spike in Unemployment Rate |
February |
January |
16 to 19 |
12.5 |
10.6 |
20 to 24 |
7.2 |
5.9 |
Leading up to the report, the decline in quits was the biggest red flag of the week.
A further examination sees declines below the 2017-2019 average in the best paying jobs:
And just moments ago, the New York Fed released interesting data.
There was a leap to 14.5% probability of losing a job over the next twelve months.
And a corresponding decline in the probability of finding a job is down to 52.5%.
In both cases these are the worst levels since April 2021.
And now, the new budget proposal is out, and it’s a doozy.
We will have more details in the morning Hotline, but I don’t think you are getting off scot-free.
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